Musalia Mudavadi and Raila Odinga at function
IN the last three opinion polls conducted by respected firms in the country, the results indicate that Eugene Wamalwa commands a three per cent national rating in the Presidential race should the general elections be held over this period while Musalia Mudavadi, the undisputed king of western region commands a paltry 1 per cent. Being the two candidates on whose back the fate of the former western province rests as the country gallops to the next general elections that is planned for sometimes next year., this is as much as revealing and interesting.
Other candidates from the region have declared their interest for the top job but the opinion polls have not captured them meaning that at best, they are rank outsiders. This crowd include, Bifwoli Wakoli, the clown that is Bumula MP, Noah Wekesa, Forestry Minister and MP Kwanza, Moses Wetangula, the corruption-plagued foreign minister who is on suspension from the cabinet and Cyrus Jirongo, the MP for Lugari, who is the latest to join the fray. Although they have made their indications clear, the three opinion polls have not ranked them, a sign that they will be forced to work extra hard to be noticed by voters.
Barring any last minute swings, this then means Wamalwa and Mudavadi are the fulcrum on which the politics of western Kenya will revolve in the Kibaki succession. To give credit where it’s due, Wamalwa has managed to make himself politically relevant. He is now considered a serious presidential material even though; he is just a first term MP. Compared to Mudavadi, this is a major plus and should buoy the young Wamalwa into upping the tempo and rhythm of stab for the presidency.
Mudavadi has been an MP and a minister since he first ventured into competitive politics upon the death of his father in 1989, save for a five year period, 2003-2007, in which the people of Sabatia toast him out for dithering between parties. Undoubtedly, Mudavadi is the senior most politician in western Kenya, both as a long serving MP and by virtue of his position as a deputy prime minister, but he is considered a horrible clone of his late father, Moses. Whoever said that a burning log begets cold impotent ash possibly had Mudavadi in mind. As a son of a man who was a real political king, the young Mudavadi has proved a bad clone of his imperious dad, both at the national and local level.
His overall performance in the two roles is increasingly coming into question. Mudavadi appears to be unsure of himself, and there are legitimate fears that because of this the Prime Minister may be forced to look elsewhere for a running mate because Mudavadi’s political grip on western province has loosened terribly in the last couple of months.It is precisely because of these weaknesses that political minions like Wamalwa and Jirongo are have discovered that Vihiga is a theatre good enough to wage their supremacy wars, in what amounts to poking a finger in the face of the deputy premier.
For a long time Jirongo has pretended to be Mudavadi’s main opponent in the regional politics. But much as there are those who think Jirongo may have bitten more than he could chew when he launched his presidential bid in Majengo, in Mudavadi’s backyard, others think is was deserved.This only happened because Mudavadi has allowed it and failed to ensure that the region is safe from political vultures out to undermine him and consume him politically.
Equally annoying is his inability to mobilise the Luyia community and lead them from the front. The emergence of Wamalwa, who is the very face of both PNU, KKK and all other anti-Raila Odinga forces is a pointer. It’s a serious indictment to Mudavadi that Wamalwa has squeezed his way into the pinnacle of western politics province in such a forceful way that now the DPM has to play a catch up role. Yet, in terms of power and resources the former pales in the shadows of the later. There is feeling that Mudavadi has allowed dissent to fester in the region because of ambivalence. That a more assertive approach would have reduced the risks of anti-ODM elements that seem to find fertile ground in western province and embolden his own position among the top politicians who are enjoying solid support in his backyard.
Even though he is Raila Odinga’s trusted ally and the main point man in the region, Mudavadi looks every inch ill cast for that role as other opportunists sneak in and gate crash the party right under his nose. Whether Odinga will be forced to look out for the running mate in his bid for 2012 is debatable but if it comes to that it will be because Mudavadi’s has made that bed.
Mudavadi is a politician who cares little. If he did, he would operate differently. Although self assured and polite, he lacks the gravitas required to survive in the rough tide that is Kenyan politics and is most times considered recluse ringed by a selfish cartel that has decided to keep him away from the people. ODM’s lose in the Ikolomani Parliamentary seat is one case in point. Investigations show there are now silent wars in the party pitting luyia and luo elite believed to be close to the Prime Minister. The sources of this wars is Mudavadi’s inability to assert himself in the party and demand his space and respect from minions who surround the PM but whose long term relevance to the party in its quest to improve on the 2007 performance is inconsequential.
Those close to him say that Mudavadi is one of those unforgiving and unbending politicians once he has taken a position. This is both good and bad. Good because he comes out as principled politicians who can be counted upon when it matters most. Bad because politics being what it is, motivated only by interests, most times requires a change of tack when the situation demands.
That anti-ODM forces are now growing in the region is a testament to Mudavadi’s growing irrelevance in the party and the national politics. The ministry of local government is powerful and one that allows the holder immense powers that could have been utilised by a calculating man to build a serious political power base. Right from county councils to city councils, a serious minister would have used even the most mundane excuse to reach out to councils across the country and councillors. Mudavadi is supposed to have constructed an airtight network of councillors who can be relied upon to deliver.
Even when an opportunity presented itself, Mudavadi floundered when he mishandled the degazettment of excess councillors nominated by Uhuru Kenyatta when he briefly served as local government minister before the grand coalition government. In the last couple of years, AFC leopard’s football club, the only thing that unites the Luyia nation, has been struggling under the weight of poor performance. The club is stuck in the lower ridges of the Kenya premier league. It is a fact that Mudavadi has allowed Alex Magelo, a Maasai and a known George Saitoti supporter to take over the reigns of the club. By allowing Magelo at the helm of the club, Mudavadi has essentially given Saitoti a clean slate to fight right within his own turf and this is hardly the stuff that serious politicians are made of.
On the other hand, AFC’s arch rivals Gor Mahia have been on the swing in the recent times. Not that they are better than AFC, but they have been fighting for the trophy while AFC has been engaged in relegation dogfights. Gor’s resurgence has been made possible by the involvement of Raila, who hardly misses the club’s premier league matches when time allows. No one remembers the last time Mudavadi attended an AFC match. No one remembers the last time he stepped in to ensure the club is managed well, particularly because the club’s belongs to the community. Because of this, millions of Luyia youths are wasting away because Mudavadi has failed to see the obvious things that a political kingpin should see
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