William Ruto, allies are now deserting him
By The Weekly Vision Team
Is William Ruto politically finished? This is the question analysts have been grappling with these past few weeks when landmark political events have pointed to the MP’s declining standing among the Kalenjin community, his base which not long ago all but worshipped him.
There is strong currency to the view that Ruto overdid himself during his appearance at the International Criminal Court early this month, but it is the manner his core Kalenjin base has reacted to some of his current moves that is sounding alarm bells among even his erstwhile loyalists.
The picture that emerges from a close assessment of recent developments depicts graphically how steep Ruto’s status has fallen over the last months, from a peak of the December-March period when he could have led Kalenjins to any direction he wished. Indicative of Ruto’s fall from grace is his botched campaign against the Ekuru Aukot-led panel selecting members of the new Electoral Commission last week, which few Kalenjin MPs hardly cared to listen to.
In the past, all the MPs needed to be let loose were the definition by their leader of a person or subject as an enemy. They would henceforth assail the subject at rallies, press conferences, funerals, literally every possible venue. To be fair to them the MPs also had to weigh in local opinion in their constituencies, which from the 2010 referendum till March peak was fiercely pro-Ruto.
But that was then. An MP we reached for comment on Ekuru Aukot matter confided that many Kalenjins are increasingly questioning Ruto’s motive in the major political battles he picks. “We lose credibility when we are seen as fighting things the country has invested so much faith in. Only our community opposed the constitution and the nomination of Chief Justice Mutunga, and both passed comfortably without our support,” explained an MP from the South Rift who confessed to keeping a “healthy distance” from Ruto.
So nervous are Kalenjins about Ruto’s politics that even councillors who supported him at press conferences every other weekend hardly talk to him these days, according to multiple sources who asked not to be named to speak candidly. The South Rift MP also raised a key concern of the anti-Ruto brigade. “Over the last four years we have been fighting the Prime Minister. But other than propaganda in the Rift Valley we have not scored on any issue over which we opposed the PM. How sure are we that he will not prevail in the 2012 elections?” he asked.
The MP enumerated the issues over which they have lost as the Mau Forest saga, where Ruto claimed to have secured Sh2 billion in 2009 only for that to prove a lie. Others are the battle over leader of government business, the constitution, the sacking of Ruto and his allies which they said the PM had no power to do, nomination of constitutional office-holders, the Legal Affairs committee and now the selection of Electoral Commission members.
“There is little we have achieved throughout this season. And on issues like the constitution and the appointment of Chief Justice, Kalenjins are beginning to feel that Ruto was on the wrong side, they feel good that Raila’s side carried the day,” said a councillor at the Kipsigis County Council. “What Ruto’s side cared for were narrow interests of the KKK Alliance in which the Kalenjins stand to lose even today,” he said.
But even as they recognise Ruto’s losses, literally everyone we spoke to said that he should not be written off too soon. The way Ruto defines his presidential run will determine whether he is finished or can survive another day, they said. The community has made clear to Ruto that he stands no chance of winning, and that they will not vote for Uhuru Kenyatta.
But they have also presented another puzzle: that Ruto should not choose for them who to vote for president if he is not the one running. Among Ruto’s inner circle, this is the challenge that has to be surmounted. The team is said to be secretly crafting a strategy that would explain Ruto’s decision to run for Governor or Senator’s position without losing the community’s support. His insistence on the presidential race is part of efforts to galvanise the Kalenjins ahead of this decision time.
Yet this very knowledge among non-Kalenjin allies is taking its toll. Previous Ruto men like Aden Dualle and Mohamoud Ali have shifted their loyalties to Uhuru Kenyatta who they hope to be on the ballot paper come rain or shine – of course barring ICC indictments. Even the secretary general of UDM Martin ole Kamwaro is believed to be shopping for an alternative landing – most likely Raila’s ODM.
However, Kamwaro’s problems with Ruto date back to March when Ruto declined to address the Mau Narok land issue that pitted Maasais against Kikuyus. When challenged to state his position on the land by Maasai youths who had blocked his entourage during a demonstration at Narok town, Ruto cheekily avoided the issue, saying he was for a peaceful resolution of the dispute between the Maasais and Mbiyu Koinange family that had acquired the land in the 1960’s. This conceited support for the Koinange family infuriated Maasais. When Kamwaro told his boss as much a few days later, Ruto merely spun off a theory that the demonstrators had been hired by William Ole Ntimama to embarrass him.
This was in the run-up to the April 7 visit to The Hague when Ruto was keen on his alliance with Uhuru. But things changed dramatically for the group when, during the grand reception on April 12, Ruto had to reject an Uhuru-for-President cap handed to him at the JKIA lounge by one enthusiastic Kikuyu MP. He has never appeared at any rally with Uhuru since then.
Yet it was on the basis of a broader alliance capable of beating Raila that many Kalenjins supported Ruto. The evolving situation has sent many Kalenjin MPs back to the drawing board. The likes of Julius Kones, David Koech and William Cheptumo are understood to have re-established relations with Raila, if cautiously.
Only Keter, who is bitter with the PM over his sacking as an assistant minister, remains enthusiastic about Ruto’s prospects but his is something of a cult. He was at The Hague early this month when Ruto abdicated the prize of his appearance – defending himself – and went for theatrics. Ruto addressed a press conference every single day of the hearings, implying his concentration on the political rather than the legal aspects of his case.
The hearings saw Ruto stumble from one gamble to another, beginning with his taking of two Kalenjins as witnesses, one of them an alleged co-suspect, that contributed to the erosion of the stature he has struggled to build lately as a national leader readying for a presidential contest. As if not appreciating that being in the dock at the ICC was a jolt on his political career, he allowed Charles Keter to voice veiled threats to witnesses.
But like other recent decisions, Keter's outbursts left many Kalenjin MPs wondering about the judgement of their leader. So much so that when Keter went to record a statement with the CID last week, he was all by himself.
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