By The Weekly Vision Team.
That Prime Minister Raila Odinga scored a feat of a lifetime with the passage of the new constitution is an open secret. The PM made the referendum campaigns such a personal duty that his opponents rejoiced when he was taken ill just weeks to the vote. And even then, Raila never ceased touting personal contributions to the battle for the new constitution. Hence now famous dinners with “second liberation heroes” – the last of which was held to celebrate the first anniversary of the constitution.
Unbeknown to many, the PM has predicated his 2012 strategies on the constitution and reforms under implementation. His coalescing of such erstwhile vitriolic opponents like Kamau Kuria, Kivutha Kibwana and Njeru Kathangu for the dinners reflects the subtext of a campaign strategy crafted by American consultants, and which is constantly being tuned and tested on real life situations.
The broad message of Raila’s 2012 campaign effort will be his forgiving personality, charm and decades-old struggles for a united and prosperous Kenya. Reaching out to the Moi family and big Kikuyu businessmen is part of the script which will climax in a campaign launch early January 2012. And lest anyone be fooled, the PM’s team is readying for elections in August 2012; his support for the proposed Cabinet constitutional amendment being nothing more than a gimmick.
At the heart of this campaign, whose secretariat is being assembled by businessman Brown Ondego, will be carefully selected women and youth leaders all branded for a niche issue. It is a testament of Raila’s ability to engineer a triumph in the face of adversity that he stands to use the new constitution, which is a far cry from the parliamentary system that he craved for decades. That very fact will be deployed to present the candidate as consensus-loving rather than the authoritarian leader his opponents paint him to be.
The PM will battle perceptions of him as vengeful, and the best answer to that is a question as to who has wronged him. He will appear with Moi at crucial public events and explain that this was the one man he could hold grudge against, yet he forgave him. Their union will be the selling point for ODM in Kalenjinland.
Team Raila recognises that the new constitution has made it more difficult for any Kenyan, including their candidate, to win the presidency, so it is on Raila’s last performance that straw polls are being conducted through a local polling company. The team has identified Merus, Kalenjins, and Kikuyu business elite as the forces that will determine the result of a run-off election. After several scenario analyses, they have concluded that 2012 will be a race pitting Raila against Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta or George Saitoti.
William Ruto’s presidential run is completely out of question for them, irrespective of the ICC verdict. Uhuru Kenyatta would be their dream opponent, with his running mate seen more likely to be Eugene Wamalwa or Raphael Tuju. Under this scenario Ukambani is added among the Kalenjin and Meru as swing regions. A George Saitoti-Raphael Tuju ticket is seen as a complete non-starter. Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua, Mutava Musyimi and Musyoka are seen as readying for the battles of their lifetime. Unless they get a good bargain they could all be irrelevant in future politics.
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